In Evogod, James Dow creates a society of agents with inherited tendencies to learn real and unreal information. Agents also have learned real and unreal information. Learning real information, for example information about the environment, increases an agent's fitness. Learning unreal information, like sacrificing a goat will appease the gods, decreases an agent's fitness. But, agents who have vast amounts of unreal information—like a priest or a shaman-- also have more credibility. At then end of their lifespan, fit agents reproduce asexually and pass on their inherited tendencies to learn real and unreal information.
Starting with the evolution framework, build a model of this situation and determine under what conditions will supernatural beliefs survive from one generation to the next.