Designing Vaccines and Viruses

Here are a few extensions to the virus.nlogo model.

Components

Contagiousness and resistance can be sums of several components. For example, resistance to a virus might be the sum of a turtle's diet, exercise, and self-esteem. The contagiousness of an idea like religion might be the sum of the penalty for not adopting the idea (Hell) plus the reward for adopting the idea (Heaven). By allowing the user to control these components, users can experiment with the effectiveness of, for example, different government policies to prevent the spread of AIDS.

Evolution versus Adaptation

We can add evolution to the model by having turtles reproduce asexually at the end of some fixed life span. We assume a parent passes the infection to her offspring (e.g., by cultural transmission or through amniotic fluid.) Having a non-fatal virus may confer an evolutionary advantage or disadvantage. This could model the survival benefit of an idea such as knowledge of a secret hunting ground. We can then compare contagiousness (adaptation) with evolutionary advantage as ways of spreading a virus.

Competing Viruses and Vaccines

The model can be extended by adding a virus attribute to a turtle indicating which of several competing viruses (A, B, C, etc.) the turtle is infected with. We assume a turtle can only be infected by at most one virus at a time. Viruses can differ in their virulence and contagiousness as well as the inital percentage of the population infected with each virus. This might be a good model for comparing advertising campaigns for competing products, for example.

Transmission of the virus can be made more interesting by considering the numbers of neighbors infected with viruses A, B, C, etc. Which virus will an uninfected turtle acquire? More interestingly, we can explore rules for one virus replacing another in a turtle that is already infected. For example, virus A might be a fatal disease while virus B might be a proposed vaccine for curing the disease caused by A.