CS297 Proposal
Housing Market Crash Prediction Using Machine Learning and Historical Data
Parnika De (parnikade@gmail.com)
Advisor: Dr. Chris Pollett
Description:
The housing market bubble burst caused the financial crisis of 2008. One of the main reasons for that was Collateral Debt Obligations (CDO). For the 2008 housing crisis, sub-prime mortgages played a huge role. Loans were given to people at high-interest rates who did not have collaterals (sub-prime loans). Then came the rating agencies who gave “AAA” rating to CDOs, even to the subprime CDO’s. We all know what a disaster it created. But that was 2008, a decade passed and banks learned from their mistakes and the US did not have a financial crisis since the US economy is stronger than ever. But is it going to be all good forever? The answer is we don’t know. Therefore in this project, I aim to analyze US housing market data and other financial data to predict whether everything is good or are we heading south. To do this project, I would use a forecasting model to analyze the data and build an ML model that would help me predict “The future of the housing market”.
Schedule:
Week 1: | 08/27/19 - 09/03/19 | Ideation and Proposal |
Week 2: | 09/03/19 - 09/10/19 | Restructured the proposal, read about MBS, Black-scholes Formula, Forcasting techniques |
Week 3: | 09/10/19 - 09/17/19 | Work on deliverable 1 and read a research paper |
Week 4: | 09/17/19 - 09/24/19 | Deliverable 1: Due |
Week 5: | 09/24/19 - 10/01/19 | Read a research paper |
Week 6: | 10/01/19 - 10/08/19 | Work on deliverable 2 |
Week 7: | 10/08/19 - 10/15/19 | Deliverable 2: Due |
Week 8: | 10/15/19 - 10/22/19 | Learn Tensorflow |
Week 9: | 10/22/19 - 10/29/19 | Work on deliverable 3 |
Week 10: | 10/29/19 - 11/05/19 | Deliverable 3: Due |
Week 11: | 11/05/19 - 11/12/19 | Apply Linear Regression on the Housing dataset |
Week 12: | 11/12/19 - 11/19/19 | Work on deliverable 4 |
Week 13: | 11/19/19 - 11/26/19 | Deliverable 4: Due |
Week 14: | 11/26/19 - 12/03/19 | Work on the report |
Week 15: | 12/03/19 - 12/10/19 | Work on the report |
Week 16: | 12/10/19 - 12/17/19 | Deliverable 5: Due |
Deliverables:
The full project will be done when CS298 is completed. The following will
be done by the end of CS297:
1. Data preparation(Cleaning of Data set)
2. Code HMM on a small dataset
3. Learn about Long short term Memory and code it
4. Apply Linear Regression on the Housing dataset
5. CS 297 report
References:
[2017] The Great Recession: A Macroeconomic Earthquake. Lawrence J. Christiano. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. 2017.
[2011] The Role of ABS, CDS and CDOs in the Credit Crisis and the Economy. Robert A. Jarrow. 2011
[2016] The 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: An Erosion of Ethics: A Case Study. Edward J. Schoen. Journal of Business Ethics. 2016
[2009] Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods. Yuliya Demyanyk, Iftekhar Hasan . Elsevier Omega. 2009.
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